Extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Amphan’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) is likely to intensify further as Super Cyclone by Monday evening as per India Meteorological Deptartment.
The department further added that it is very likely to move northwards for some time and then north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal - Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Begal) and Hatiya islands (Bangladesh) during Afternoon/Evening of Wednesday 20th May 2020 as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.
In it’s latest press release issued at 4PM (IST), 18th May 2020, India Meteorological Department has issued warning for West Bengal and north Odisha coasts (Orange
Message). The dept. further added
“Yesterday’s severe cyclonic storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm in the same evening (1430 hrs IST of 17th May) over the same area. It further intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm over westcentral BoB in the early hours (0230 hrs IST), into a super cyclonic storm in the afternoon (1130 hrs IST) of today the 18th May, 2020 over the same region and lay centered near latitude 13.4°N and longitude 86.2 °E, about 770 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 920 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1040 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts
between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during the Afternoon / Evening of 20th May 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 165-175 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.”
(1) Heavy rainfall Warning:
Odisha
Coastal Odisha is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places from today evening with heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Odisha (Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur & Kendrapara Districts) on 18th May, 2020. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over north coastal Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Balasore, Bhadrak & Mayurbhanj Districts) and isolated heavy falls over Khordha & Puri districts on 19th May and isolated heavy rainfall over north Odisha (Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Kendrapara and Keonjhar Districts) on 20th May 2020.
West Bengal
Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal (East Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas) are
likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 19th May. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts) on 20th May and isolated heavy rain over interior districts on 21st May, 2020.
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over
Malda & Dinajpur districts on 20th May and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21st May, 2020.
Assam & Meghalaya
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21st May.
(2) Wind warning
West Bengal & Odisha
- Squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to commence along and off south Odisha coast from 18th evening, increase becoming 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph extend to along & off north Odisha coast from 19th morning and along and off West Bengal coast from 19th afternoon.
- The wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20th morning along and off north Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts) and West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts). It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 110 to 120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph along & off the above mentioned districts of North Odisha.
- Gale wind speed reaching 165 to 175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph very likely along & off east Medinipur and north & south 24 Parganas districts and 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Mednipur Districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20th afternoon to night).
- Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph likely to prevail over Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha during 20th May 2020.
Deep Sea area
- Gale wind speed reaching 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph is prevailing over west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal. It is likely to increase becoming 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Bay of Bengal from tonight to 19th May morning, likely to increase further becoming 230-240 gusting to 265 kmph by tonight.
- Gale wind speed reaching 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph over north Bay of Bengal from 19th morning and gradually decrease becoming 155- 165 kmph gusting to 180 kmph by 20th evening.
(3) Sea condition
Sea condition will be Phenomenal over west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. It will become Phenomenal over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 19th May and over north Bay of Bengal on 20th May
2020.
(4) Fishermen Warning
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours, to central Bay of Bengal on 19th May and into North Bay of Bengal during 19th to 20th May 2020.
- Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during 18th to 20th May 2020.
(5) Storm Surge expected
- Storm Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of Landfall. (Figure enclosed)
(6) Damage Expected and Action suggested
(a) West Bengal (east Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts)
Damage Expected:
- Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.
- Disruption of rail/road link at several places.
- Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.
- Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees.
- Uprooting of large bushy trees.
- Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.
Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations during 18th to 20th May 2020.
- Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
- People in affected areas to remain indoors. Mobilise evacuation from Low lying areas.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.
(b) Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur & Mayurbhanj)
Damage Expected:
- Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems.
- Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations during 18th to 20th May 2020.
- Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
- People in affected areas to remain indoors.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable
You can access the full press release here.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to chair a high-level meeting to further discuss preparations for the storm.
The cyclone comes amid huge levels of migration from the cities to villages due to coronavirus lockdown.
In India tens of thousands of people especially migrant labors are fleeing cities in the wake of a lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus. Both Odisha and West Bengal are seeing a large number of people return.
India’s meteorological department has issued a “yellow alert” for the region, advising fishermen not to “venture into the south Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours, and north Bay of Bengal from 18-20 May”.
A ‘”yellow alert” or “cyclone alert” is issued “of the expected commencement of adverse weather over the coastal areas”.
This a Catch-22 situation for Indian authorities. To safeguard from cyclone Amphan, they may need to relocate hundreds of thousands people quickly into densely packed shelters but doing so may create a risk of Covid-19 spread.
Last June a powerful cyclone that was expected to make landfall on India’s western coast changed its course, and moved further into the Arabian sea.
And in May last year India evacuated more than a million people to safety to avoid Cyclone Fani, in which 16 people were killed in Odisha.
In the Bay of Bengal, the cyclone season typically runs from April to December.